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Home building activity expected to slow - Stockton Record

05.02.09

Housing production in California in 2009 is expected to decrease from the already record-low numbers seen in 2008, the California Building Industry Association forecast Tuesday.

The Sacramento-based trade group predicted that 63,400 houses and apartments will be produced this year, a 3 percent drop from the record-low 65,380 units produced in 2008. In comparison, the low point of the home building recession in the early 1990s hit 84,656 units in 1993.

The group said 30,000 single-family homes will be built statewide this year, down 9 percent from 33,048 built last year. Multifamily units are expected to increase to 33,400 this year, up 3 percent from 32,332 permits in 2008.

The forecast said 700 single-family homes will be built this year in San Joaquin County, down from 770 last year - and down hugely from 2,138 in 2007.

Few apartments are built in the county typically, but 46 were built last year, according to the Construction Industry Research Board, which tracks the building sector in California.

Source: Stockton Record, CA

Starting Off 2009!

Ringing in the New Year, the situation for the local housing and real estate industries will unfortunately continue to be bleak as foreclosures and defaults continue to be extremely high in Stockton and the rest of San Joaquin County. According to Realtytrac as of 1/5/2009 there are 1,968 Defaults, 1,136 Trustee Sales and 5,625 Bank Owned REO’s in Stockton. For San Joaquin County there are 3,473 Defaults, 2,058 Trustee Sales and 9,623 Bank Owned REO’s. Despite the fact that foreclosure remains a big problem for Stockton and the rest of the County there appears to be some good signs. According to the Record (Spence, 2008, D1) home sales throughout San Joaquin County have increased 341% in November 2008 versus November 2007, going from 288 in November of 2007 to 981 in November 2008. Part of this is attributed to declining interest rates that have been steadily falling and are now reaching record lows, hovering in the lower five percent range for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Another reason for the dramatic increase in home sales from the previous year is the availability of low priced foreclosed and bank owned homes. Local realtors are reporting that first time homebuyers are taking advantage of low prices and interest rates and are driving the spike in home sales.

Also the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on December 24th that the drop in interest rates has caused a spike in the number of mortgage applications. The MBA reports that as of 12/19/08 the Market Composite Index increased 48% from the previous week, going from 841.4 to 1245.4. The MBA emphasizes that the index has not reached these levels since June of 2003. Interestingly, the MBA reports that the bulk of these mortgage applications are mainly from individuals looking to take advantage of the current rates by refinancing. Although it isn’t specifically mentioned, this is good news as many of those refinancing into the current rates are likely to be less at risk of facing foreclosure.

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